Wednesday, 22 May 2013

Inductive & Deductive Reasoning


Deductive and Inductive reasoning

For my final blog for the term I am going to present an example of deductive and inductive reasoning.

This morning I woke to news of an apparent “terrorist attack” in London where a soldier was killed by two people who were then shot by armed police.


As the story unfolds the details are getting more and more accurate however I will base this part of the blog on the initial report I read first thing this morning.

There are several good examples in the article of Inductive reasoning in the initial story I will give the best example

The victim was a soldier (Reported by the reporter)

How did the reporter come to this conclusion?

PREMISE:             soldiers wear soldier’s uniforms
PREMISE:             The victim was wearing a soldier’s uniform
CONCLUSION:   Therefore the victim was probably a solider.

The inductive reasoning uses the word probably as it cannot be proven without a shadow of a doubt that the victim was a soldier. The reasoning is relatively weak as soldier’s uniforms can be purchase anywhere by anyone.

Searching through the news articles on yahoo.com.au and news.com.au at the moment it is apparent that a majority of the media’s arguments are based on inductive reasoning. As yet I have not found any with deductive reasoning.

The example of deductive reasoning come from a Coroner’s report on a boating incident that I was involved in the search and rescue for in 2009. http://www.courts.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/170339/cif-robinson-nk-tschannen-s-20121210.pdf

The deductive reasoning comes from a statement by a medical survival expert Dr Paul Luckin.
“A medical survival expert, assessed the prospect of a person surviving in a vessel submerged at 50m even if there was an air pocket. He considered there was no prospect due to the pressure that would be experienced at that depth.”

PREMISE:           No possibility of surviving at a depth of 50m
PREMISE:           The vessel was submerged at 50m
CONCLUSION:   No survivors were present in the vessel.

This is a valid argument as all premises are true which means the conclusion must also be true.

Deductive reasoning is rarely seen in media/news articles.

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, 16 May 2013

Accimap

For Today's post we have to post an Accimap. The Incident that i chose to do an accimap on was the Shen Neng 1 grounding off Rockhampton in 2010. I was on board the first search and rescue aircraft on scene and spent many weeks in Rockhampton on daily flights looking for signs of Oil in the reef.


Shen Neng 1
Picture: Australian Maritime Safety Authority - (Taken by my crew on the day following the grounding)

Full Size Accimap Link
https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=555493E0F51EE490!515&authkey=!AGKzcTwn3ptQleE

 
 
A photo of Me with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd during one of the daily flights.
 
 
 
References:
News.com.au. 2013. Chinese coal carrier Shen Neng 1 owners say they're sorry for not sticking to route | News.com.au. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/chinese-coal-carrier-shen-neng-1-owners-say-theyre-sorry-for-not-sticking-to-route/story-e6frfkvr-1225851749080. [Accessed 12 May 2013].
 
Investigation: 274-MO-2010-003 - grounding of the Chinese registered bulk carrier Shen Neng 1 at Douglas Shoal [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2010/mair/274-mo-2010-003.aspx. [Accessed 12 May 2013].

Monday, 22 April 2013

Habits & truth

Blog 4 – Habits and Truths.
For this blog we have to write about something we have been brought up as believing is true but in fact not be.

HABIT:
The habit I have chosen to blog about is about saving money by refuelling your car in the morning.
There are two theories to this.

1. Liquids expand as they get warmer.
Warm Petrol expands and cooler petrol is denser. So if you purchase petrol in the heat of the day you get a smaller volume of petrol.

2. As liquids warm evaporation increases.
Pumping petrol in the heat of the day causes the fuel to evaporate out of the open fuel cap causing a loss in petrol.


This myth has been in the family for years. I have questioned it but never done any research.


FACTS:
• "Gasoline does expand and contract a little depending on its temperature. When gasoline rises from 60 to 75 degrees F, for instance, it increases in volume by 1 percent while the energy content remains the same". (Hard, 2008)

• Tests were also conducted on the temperature changes on petrol stations underground fuel tanks throughout the day.
o" Results. While the air temperature between filling varied by up to 12 degrees, the fuel in our underground tank stayed at a steady 62 degrees F. As a result, we found that after the first few gallons were pumped, the fuel temperature coming out of the nozzle varied very little between morning and afternoon". (Hard, 2008)

• "Someone who gets up at dawn to fill up early won't save even one simple penny. And if he's racing to the gas station to beat out the other early birds, his fuel costs will be 35 percent higher than the guy who drives calmly, according to Edmunds testing. (Romans, 2008) People who really want to save money on gas should look to change their driving style instead of counting on the cool-fuel theory." (Reed, 2008)

CONCLUSION:
While the theory behind the myth is sound the practicality of the myth is false. The savings are Negligible and if you go out of your way to refuel in the morning you will be spending more on fuel then fuelling up later in the day when you are near a petrol station.


REFERENCES:
Hard, G., 2008. Consumer Reports. [Online]
Available at: http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2008/08/gas-pump-myth.html
[Accessed 23 04 2013].
Reed, P., 2008. Edmunds. [Online]
Available at: http://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/three-gas-price-myths.html
[Accessed 23 4 2013].
Romans, B., 2008. Edmunds. [Online]
Available at: http://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/we-test-the-tips-part-ii.html
[Accessed 23 4 2013].



Monday, 8 April 2013

Problem Solving








PROBLEM:  
I Left my laptop charger at home in Cairns only have “2 hr 14 min (80%) ” left of charge in my laptop and have three assignments due this week.

CONTEXT: (Technical Complexity)                                 
What sounds like a simple problem to solve has actually turned into a complex one.
Last Thursday I flew from Cairns back to work on Horn Island where I will be for two weeks.
While unpacking my bags and setting up my room late Thursday night I realised that I had left my only laptop charging cable back in Cairns.

Express post 
  •  Last time I had something sent express post from Cairns it did not arrive for over two weeks which meant I was back at home by the time it arrived. This is my last tour up in the Torres which means if I do express post it and it takes over two weeks I will have permanently lost the charger.
Buying it locally
  • Not an option either as there is nowhere locally to purchase a new charger the closest electronics store which stocks the charger is in Cairns.

REALITIES: (Practice Space)
This individual problem is a private one. However there has been and will be further incidences of this problem occurring with touring employees forgetting necessary items back at home.

ACTORS:
There are a few key actors in this problem:
Tim (Me): The person who really needs the charger to get these assignments done.
Brianna: (My Girlfriend): The person at Cairns trying to source ways to get the charge to me in time.

TENSONS: (Why the problem exists)
Ultimately it is the main actor (ME) that has made this problem exist:
  •  Mindset – Leaving things to the last possible minute and rushing to get packed.
  • Disorganised – Leaving the charger not in its usual place where I wouldn’t miss it.
  • Pre Planning – This is my last tour up in the Torres Strait, I planned to pack lightly so I have space to bring all my belongings home.
  • Emotions – Being my last tour I was excited to get going and get this final tour over and done.

PROBLEM DEFINITION: What the problem would looked like if it were solved
  • Stress Levels would significantly be reduced. 
  •  Laptop would be charging.
  • Brianna would be doing her assignments without worrying about my charger.
  • This problem would never happen again to any touring employee.

CONCEPTS: Solutions.
  • Create a pre-work checklist – Ensure all items are packed before leaving home.
  • Have a second laptop charger in my backpack.
  • Organise a Universal laptop charger to be stationed at Horn Island for anyone making this mistake.
  • Research quicker, cost effective postage options.
Charge Remaining 0 hrs 25min 13%

Thursday, 21 March 2013

New Perspectives

For blog number two I have been asked to access three other students’ blogs and explain how this informed any new perspectives.
I have taken great pleasure in reading almost every blog that has been submitted so far. I have come to realise that the contextual lens as seen by different individuals can be influenced by life experiences, personal upbringing and training. The blogs written about accidents by emergency service staff and volunteers give great detail on the lens of the emergency service worker. The blogs about incidents from a witness point of view give a great contextual lens on the victim/casualty and not necessarily the first responders. These are just a few examples.
This shows that not one individual can give the complete contextual lens of all parties involved and that working as a team or a group of people with different experience and backgrounds may be a more effective process.
 
The first blog that gave me a new perspective is a blog that I can no longer seem to locate. It was a blog about a Swift Water Rescue that went wrong when a child slipped from the rescuers grip/lifejacket. This blog was written by a rescuer who is also a parent. I remember the incident occurring and my thoughts were entirely about the rescuer. Being a rescuer myself and not a parent I guess it was the first thing I related too. I didn’t really take the time to think of this incident from the parent’s perspective. Reading this blog really made me think of the contextual lens of the other parties involved at a more detailed level then I would previously have.
If anyone can point me in the right direction of this blog and author that would be much appreciated. (EDIT: I have found the blog in question http://staceysrealworldinvestigation-stacey.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/hi-guys-i-have-never-attempted-blog.html )
 
The second blog that has given new perspective is "road accident 3 killed – personal blog by Julia Sims" http://moodle.cqu.edu.au/blog/index.php?entryid=473
Julia mentioned that the driver was found to have drugs in his system. I was sitting here thinking to my self how does this effect this persons contextual lens and how as a investigator can we determine this? This also lead me to question if drugs affect the lens then what about things like mental illness? This might cause us as investigators to come up with different versions of a persons lens based on normal state of mind and altered state of mind.
 
The next blog that Is Darren Carters blog on the Forklift accident involving a child. http://dalr66.wordpress.com/blog1-contextual-lens/
This blog focused on the contextual lens of a Child. Not having a child myself I sat there thinking how do children think, act and see the world at such a young age. I tried thinking of a incident that involved a child. I tried to write contextual lens for the child but I found it difficult. I have come to realise as an investigator this is something that I will have to come to try and understand to fully investigate incidents involving children.

Tuesday, 19 March 2013

Contextual Lenses



As part of my accident forensics studies in particular the course on real world investigation I have been asked observe the world around me and reflect on a personal or news event unfolding.

The items I have to reflect on are:
 
·         The contextual Lens myself and others wear;
·         The influence this may have on how the situation is perceived by various parties
·         How these factors might ultimately influence the outcome of the event.

Me and reflecting on things don’t really go together let alone reflecting on a personal issues. So maybe it’s time to give it a go.

I was having a few issues trying to come up with a simple event to base my blog on. As luck should have it (Well I was fairly lucky I guess) I was involved in an aviation incident late yesterday afternoon.

We were conducting an ordinary helicopter flight, finishing up our day we had to complete a Refuel. The refuelling went without problem and we were set to depart 15 minutes prior to last light. We lifted and started to depart following the runway. Three Quarters down the runway we receive a Master Caution Light for a Rotor Brake Activation. A rotor brake is similar to your hand brake on your car however in a helicopter it is used to slow the main rotor down once the engines are shut off. Luckily there were still a few minutes of daylight left and we were able to abort the take-off at the end of the runway and quickly land the helicopter.

The problem with getting a rotor brake activation in flight is it has the potential to slow down the only thing keeping you in the air the main rotor and also the friction caused is likely to start a fire.

Had this occurred at night we would have had to take the problem into the air and take several minutes to get back onto the ground. Even worse if this happened over the open ocean and we did experience the speed of the main rotor decreasing or a fire warning we would have had to have ditched the aircraft into the water at night.

That would have been worse case scenario luckily the fault was only found to be a problem with the switch in the rotor brake handle and not actually the rotor brake coming on in flight.

Now there were two people directly involved in this incident. The helicopter pilot and the crewman (Me). There were several other people not directly involved in this incident the Air Traffic Controller in Brisbane and our company flight monitoring staff in Canberra.

I’ll start with my actual lens:

Being fairly new to the helicopter side of Aviation I did not realise the issues associated with this kind of problem. Also to add to my complacency we quite often had problems with the rotor brake light on the ground after doing a rotor brake test. Every time the engineers would come out and fix something and the problem would go away for a few weeks.

So my lens when this incident was occurring and my though process involved

·         Master Caution Light this must be serious
·         Rotor Brake Light ahh that’s nothing it happens all the time on the ground
·         It’s been a big day let’s just go home.
·         The captain is turning around it must be serious.
·         If something does go wrong what do I have to do?

 The Captain this day was an experienced ex-military helicopter pilot with thousands of hours on helicopters.

His possible lens and thoughts.

·         What’s the Master Caution for?
·         Rotor Brake Light is this an indication error or is it a real issue?
·         Do I take this problem into the air and sort it out?
·         Is there any secondary indications?
·         How much daylight do I have left?
·         Is the helicopter secure?
·         If I have to force land where?
·         Where is the wind?
·         What is the cloud base?
·         What available emergency services are there? 

Air Traffic Control & Company Flight tracking were other parties not directly involved in the event but were still monitoring out flight path. These guys and girls are stuck in a location not able to physically see the aircraft but are monitoring every move we make to ensure we are safe and if something does go wrong they know where to come look for us.

From their end all they may have possibly seen is the helicopter marker on their computer screen and the helicopter taking off and making a sharp descending turn back to the aerodrome. The ATC controller received a brief radio call stating that we were returning to the airport and that was all. From this radio call the controller may have thought

·         They forgot something they are just going back
·         Having seen the helicopter perform a sharp descending turn may have though that the helicopter had gone into an uncontrolled spin, Fire on board, Hijacking?? The list goes on.
 
All this from a simple radio call and a dot on a computer screen.
 
All these different lenses had the opportunity to ultimately affect the outcome of the event.
My Lens:
·    It’s just an indication error let’s keep going… What if it wasn’t just an indication error? I’d probably be floating around in the ocean somewhere.
The Captains Lens:
·    Let’s turn around and land just in case. May have ultimately saved the crew and the airframe.